Windows Phone 7 may be a failure!

I think Windows Phone 7 Series is a good thing and has a big potential to be a big success, allowing Microsoft to carve out some serious market share in the long haul. there are also a lot of reasons why Windows Phone 7 Series won't be a success. Let's dissect them.

The Developers
There's no question that a healthy app development story helps to bring any smartphone platform marketshare. The development of great apps drives enthusiasm towards a platform, and that cycle is self-perpetuating. The development story for Windows Phone 7 is still unknown, though we know that WP7 apps can be built from Silverlight and .NET. This is a deviation from what developers have gotten used to in Windows Mobile, meaning that companies like Spb will have to rewrite their apps to work on Windows Phone 7 Series, instead of simply updating certain parts.

Additionally, apps may be limited in their ability to push notifications to the user, multitask, and integrate with elements of the phone (calendar, phone, email, camera, etc). This could limit the ability for developers to make truly creative applications, thus discouraging development from the best talent out there.

The OEMs
We still don't know to what extent the OEMs will be able to customize WP7 devices. We know that they'll be able to use a variety of form factors (slide out keyboard, bottom slide out, slate, etc). But without the ability to alter the user interface (currently Motorola and HTC rely heavily on interface customization to differentiate their Android products), OEMs may hold back and devote their resources to Android.

The Competition & Timing
While Microsoft is promising quicker over-the-air software updates for the platform, that doesn't stop Google and Apple from making big changes to their mobile operating systems so that they better compete against Windows Phone 7 Series. There's an entire eight months or so until the first Windows Phone 7 Series device ships, which is plenty of time for Apple and Google to retool and get ready for WP7. And it's unlikely that Apple or Google will preview changes to their mobile platforms months ahead of release, so Microsoft will continue to sail blind and not see what is coming down the pike from their biggest competitors.

The Confused Consumer
Microsoft has emphasized that the branding of Windows Phone 7 Series is very important. They want customers to walk into a store and request a Windows Phone, or they want customers to be able to see the tile interface of a Windows Phone and say "Hey, this looks familiar, it's a Windows Phone. I know what to expect!"

But there's a problem here. First, the name. Can you imagine requesting a "Windows Phone 7 Series Phone"? The name is painful to say, and asking for a phone that runs an operating system with the name "phone" in it doesn't make for a memorable name.

Also strange about the name is the use of the word "Windows." Admittedly, the Windows brand has seen renewed strength today thanks to Windows 7. But when people think Windows 7 and then they see Windows Phone devices that have absolutely no resemblance to their desktop product, they're going to become confused. Perhaps a better name would have been "Microsoft Phone" or even the media-happy "Zune Phone."